Blown in over the Black Isles by a winter storm, a pair of Jealkia, or Storm Crawlers, look down on the woods searching out prey. The booming sound of a Hilkia, or Storm Caller, shouting for lightning in the storm reaches their ears. They can feel the rise in potential around them and prepare to descend.
A bolt! And then quickly after it a second. The two Jealkia descend instantly, landing on either side of the Hilkia as it turns to lumber toward one of the impact points. It sees them and growls, thumping the ground with its thick tail.
The Jealkia snarl back, beating their wings to seem larger and circling. The Hilkia keeps its head toward one, tail toward the other, pivoting slowly on the spot until the Jealkia charge.
Round 1: Hilkia: 181 HP Jealkia1: 72 HP Jealkia2: 67 HP. The Hilkia has a called action to swing with its tail when the Jealkia behind attacks, this is the first attack to occur, it hits the unsuspecting Jealkia with 4.08 damage, staggering it so it cannot complete it’s charge. The other Jealkia makes a bite for 0.624 damage after armor.
Round 2: Hilkia: 180.376 HP Jealkia1: 72 HP Jealkia2: 62.92 HP. The Hilkia bites back with a roll of 15*2.2=33 and 19.2 potential damage, but the quick Jealkia attempts to dodge with 3.2*4=12.8. This is a terrible roll! He is bitten and after armor takes 13.824 damage. The Hilkia also takes another swing with his tail at the Jealkia behind with 8*2.6=20.8, enough to hit, but the Jealkia dodges twice and escapes the tail’s reach. The Jealkia behind rushes back in for a bite with 9*2.8=25.2 but the Hilkia dodges with 1.6*17=27.2. The one in front also bites with 13*2.8=36.4 and the Hilkia takes the hit for 1.248 damage after armor.
Round 3: Hilkia: 179.128 HP Jealkia1: 58.176 HP Jealkia2: 62.92 HP. Unable the bite this round, the Hilkia does take another swing at the Jealkia behind with 11*2.6=28.6, but the Jealkia double dodges again. The rear Jealkia attacks once again with 8*2.8=24.4 and the Hilkia fails to dodge with 1.6*8=12.8 taking 1.872 damage. The other Jealkia attacks and hits, the Hilkia again doesn’t attempt to dodge (on the second dodge, his chance of critical failure is significantly higher than his chance of success) and takes 2.496 damage.
Round 4: Hilkia: 174.76 HP Jealkia1: 58.176 HP Jealkia2: 62.92 HP. On this round, the Hilkia can bite but cannot use his tail, he gets 2.2*12=26.4 to hit, but the Jealkia dodges easily. The rear Jealkia attacks with 2.8*16=44.8 for a critical hit! 4.992 damage! The Hilkia fails his dodge. The front Jealkia also attacks with 2.8*11=30.8 for 3.744 damage.
Round 5: Hilkia: 166.024 HP Jealkia1: 58.176 HP Jealkia2: 62.92 HP. The Hilkia uses his tail, but not bite, for 2.6*13=33.8. The Jealkia narrowly manages both dodges and escapes unharmed. They again bite, both hitting for a total of 2.496 damage.
Round 6: Hilkia: 163.528 HP Jealkia1: 58.176 HP Jealkia2: 62.92 HP. The Hilkia attacks with both bite and tail. His tail misses and the Jealkia dodges his bite. They both bite and one makes a critical hit, dealing a total of 9.36 damage.
Pause: This is most likely going to be a very long fight, as I’m sure you’ve gathered. You can probably predict the outcome. But the events of round 2 make it clear a couple bad dodges from the Jealkia could quickly turn the tables. The Hilkia is counting on that, dodging as best he can.
Round 7: Hilkia: 154.168 HP Jealkia1: 58.176 HP Jealkia2: 62.92 HP. The Hilkia swings with his tail, but misses. The Jealkia attack and one hits for 1.872 damage.
Round 8: Hilkia: 152.296 HP Jealkia1: 58.176 HP Jealkia2: 62.92 HP. The Hilkia bites and despite a very good roll 2.2*17=37.4 the Jealkia dodges. They attack and one again hits with 1.872 damage.
Round 9: Hilkia: 150.424 HP Jealkia1: 58.176 HP Jealkia2: 62.92 HP. At this point it has occurred to me that this fight is projected to take 48 rounds if damage continues at this rate (which has been about the expected damage rate). I don’t want to roll out 40 rounds. It’s battles like these that make me wish I had the combat programmed. Instead I will now give a probabilistic projection of the battle.
The Hilkia has two attacks. His tail he uses 3 of 4 rounds and has a 83.8% chance of hitting and 4.63% chance of a critical. The critical failure chance is 0.46%. It averages 5.76 damage including strength and armor. It is long and requires 2 dodges 98.15% and 83.8% chances of success for a total chance of successful dodge of 82.25%. His expected, or average in the limit, damage is therefore 0.1353 damage per round. Note that he is expected to deal only 0.00437 damage to himself each round. This is a good way to determine if the attack is worth using.
His bite he uses every other round, has a 62.5% chance of hitting and no chance of a critical. His critical miss chance is 1.85%. It averages 10.368 damage including strength and armor. The Jealkia have a 98.15% chance of dodging it. His expected damage with this attack is 0.05994 per round. His expected damage to self each round is 0.01914. This is not nearly as good a ratio of output to risk as the tail.
The Jealkia have two attack options, but will opt to use their teeth only in this fight. They can bite every round with a 83.8% chance of hitting, a 9.26% chance of a critical, and 0.46% chance of critical failure. It averages 2.184 damage. The Hilkia can dodge only one each round with a chance of 62.5% of success. Their combined expect damage each round is 3.0727. Their individual expected damage to self each round is 0.001581, which is great!
From these numbers we can see that both sides have done more than the expected damage in the first 8 rounds. We also see that Jealkia should be able to take the Hilkia down in under 60 rounds, while the Hilkia will need over 400 rounds to bring one down. This does not take into account fatigue, but since the Hilkia also fatigues faster, it is a non-issue.
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